The e-commerce sector skyrocketed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but that growth has since tempered into a few years of smaller but more reliable gains. However, e-commerce seems to be picking up speed again. U.S. retail e-commerce sales hit $340.2 billion in Q2 2026, up 12.2% year over year—nearly double the growth of standard retail. Online sales now amount to more than 17% of total retail.
That momentum is widely expected to carry into the holiday peak season. Adobe is currently forecasting $275.1 billion in U.S. online holiday sales, which would set a new record. But for the brands selling those goods, this growth means more orders, more returns, and more customers to keep happy. For the fulfillment operations supporting those efforts, strategies that worked well enough over the last couple of years may bend or break under this year’s higher pressure.
Here are some considerations for brands and their fulfillment partners as a busier peak season approaches.
Online Orders Take More Room
For online brands, e-commerce isn’t just a channel; it’s the only channel. That makes e-commerce fulfillment quite different than its brick-and-mortar counterpart. E-commerce fulfillment takes roughly three times the logistics space required for in-store sales. This is due to:
- A larger assortment of products
- Higher inventory levels
- Picking/packing at the parcel level
- Processing returns
- Value-added services/support
Together, these things take up extra floor space that brick-and-mortar retailers can often distribute across a store footprint.
“When an e-commerce business grows, all that extra activity has to happen somewhere,” says Frank Crivello, founder and chairman of Milwaukee, Wisconsin-based Phoenix Investors. “The newest warehouse on the block isn’t necessarily the answer. The brands that win will be those who have enough space in the right location that’s run by folks who know how to squeeze the most out of every square foot.”
Peaks Are Now Longer and Harder to Predict
Not so long ago, holiday peaks arrived in a steady wave that made them easier to plan for. Now, early seasonal events drive smaller peaks well in advance of Black Friday. Adobe predicts nearly $96 billion in online spending in October alone. Then, when Black Friday arrives, it immediately extends into Cyber Week—which Adobe projects will drive $47.5 billion in online sales—beginning a peak that, for many brands, can last until Christmas Day.
Growing customer expectations complicate matters further, as customers increasingly expect more predictable delivery even when the brands they buy from are overwhelmed. More than six in 10 (62%) consumers in a Capital One Shopping survey say an accurate estimated delivery date matters more than fast shipping. A similar number (67%) of shoppers in a Roadie survey of 1,000 consumers say they will wait more than two days if delivery is free, as long as the item isn’t time-sensitive; another report reveals that customers will abandon a brand after only a few bad delivery experiences.
Technology Is Raising the Standard for Fulfillment
The more orders that go out, the more that come back. National Retail Federation data estimates that more than 19% of online sales ended up as returns in 2025, which is much higher than the overall retail return rate. Almost nine out of 10 (89%) retailers say their 3PL strategy is becoming “more strategic and integrated” as part of efforts to rethink fulfillment strategies.
Technology is becoming central to those decisions. The 2026 Annual Third-Party Logistics Study shows that 90% of shippers rank technology capabilities as one of the most critical factors when choosing a 3PL. With 67% of shippers already using AI or machine learning in their own operations, it makes sense they want their logistics partners to match them in real-time inventory visibility, order tracking, and other critical data.
Fulfillment Strategies Need to Scale
As e-commerce continues to grow, fulfillment operations that can flex to match that growth will gain a competitive advantage. As brands look toward the holiday peak and 2027 just over the horizon, there are some key questions to ask right now:
- Can we handle multiple peaks without a negative impact on our service levels?
- Have we positioned enough inventory close to key customer markets to meet our delivery promises?
- Can we process incoming returns fast enough to get sellable items back on the shelf?
- Do we have enough visibility to spot problems before customers see them?
Answering those questions in-house usually means heavy investments in space, labor, systems, and time. With peak season fast approaching, a 3PL partner is better positioned to provide capacity without a massive capital commitment, with the added flexibility to scale up and down as your demand shifts.
About Phoenix Logistics
Strategic Real Estate. Applied Technology. Tailored Service. Creativity. Flexibility. These fundamentals reflect everything we do at Phoenix Logistics. We provide specialized support in locating and attaining the correct logistics solutions for every client we serve. Most logistics competitors work to win 3PL contracts and then attempt to secure the real estate to support them. As an affiliate of giant industrial real estate firm Phoenix Investors, we can quickly secure real estate solutions across its portfolio or leverage its market and financial strength to quickly source and acquire real estate to meet our clients’ needs.
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